As gas prices skyrocket, Americans will abandon the suburbs and embrace urban living. That's the wishful thinking I detect when urbanists seize upon the findings in a CEOs for Cities study that claims to find and prove a causal link between rising gas prices and the collapse of the housing market bubble.

The study is intriguing; it uses data on gas prices and the timing of the housing bubble collapse, along with location specific analysis of real estate trends to explain the housing bubble NOT in terms of lending practices, but instead due to a fundamental shift in economics caused by rising fuel prices.
The study is principally talking about exurbs--and situations like the one in the New York Times article where a double-income couple chose to buy a McMansion an hour from their jobs. Perhaps those people, if they were looking to buy that house today, would think twice, factoring in the commute cost.

But it is too great a leap to take this study and say that Americans are ready to alter generations of housing practices and flip so many assumptions upside down overnight. Personally, I am a proponent of urban living, but even for me, a number of practical considerations make "suburban town" a better choice. It is impossible to predict economic behavior in an essay with any accuracy, but the idea that high gas prices = Americans coming to their senses and moving back to the cities where they "ought to be," is ludicrously elitist and ignores the many things that have not changed in the calculus:

• Many people hate cities. Perhaps if everyone could live in neighborhoods like Hudson St in Greenwich Village in the 1960s when Jane Jacobs was writing the Death and Life of Great American Cities, more might be inspired to move. But it is a fundamental component of the American psyche and dream to value space over place. Part of place is living somewhere where other people don't bother you. People are already willing to drive an hour, have no local community life, and have limited family time together...why would a few thousand dollars a year of fuel costs make much difference?
• Most people feel they need space for the kids. It is possible to find examples where urban living is safer and workable for kids and to contrast that with suburban settings where, due to isolation, the space is not what parents thought it would be...it is an isolated, boring wasteland. But the draw of suburban space is more complex than that, and while gas prices may make us reexamine our assumptions...we are still left with:
• 1) having a yard means we can let the (very young) kids play by themselves instead of having to chaperone them to a city park. Mom or Dad can watch the kids out the window while doing household chores.
• 2) schools are generally better in the suburbs. There are always exceptions and there are certainly cases where committed parents will make a difference in the city. But it is a lot easier to improve the suburban school than rescue the city project. Many suburban parents who would otherwise like to live in the city, factor in the cost of private school as a necessary component of moving back.
• Convenience. If you find the ideal city neighborhood, perhaps it is possible to schlep down to the corner store for what you need and walk home. But even before we had kids, we needed regular excursions by car to stores like Costco and Walmart. With 3 kids...you are probably driving a minivan. It's nice to have a driveway to park that boat in. After baby 2 and before we realized we would have Baby 3, we traded in our pickup truck for a Honda Element...now, we realize the car cannot legally carry 3 children at once. Some items of convenience are habits that grew out of suburban living, but the decision to eliminate car travel is more complex than just cutting the mileage when you have kids.

After I thought about this, I happened to be driving back from Boston through Newton the other day and found myself wishing I could move to a closer location. As I drove Commonwealth Ave (having missed the on ramp to I-90 and resigning myself to a slow drive instead of backtracking) I was impressed with all the people walking, biking, strollering...it seemed so idyllic. It seemed like the kind of neighborhood I would like to live in. A quick zillow of that area brought me back to reality. A single family home is easily $750K; most are closer to $1M. And yes, there are parts of Newton where you could buy a small condo for less. Maybe if we didn't also have two large dogs...

Affordability in the urban core of places like Boston is the nail in the coffin to any hope of exurban in-migration. I think we will just buy more fuel-efficient cars and make fewer trips. We're not going to trade a $2500 mortgage for a $5000 one. Already, where we live, in the "inner suburbs" is priced out of the reach of most people starting out. As people go through the thought process above, their focus will creep slowly outward, along the commuter rail lines, into the inner suburbs. That will revive the housing market in place like where I live, I hope. But it is a marginal effect...it is the people who bought the McMansion moving from the exurbs to the suburbs. As they move in, they will drive prices further beyond the reach of others who will trade places with them to live out past 495 and drive to a train station at the end of the rail line.

This is a pessimistic assessment, I know. And I don't have data to back it up; just my impressions and my own locational calculus. I believe the gas crunch will wake many people up to consider alternatives and I am optimistic that those alternatives could be:

• Tranform our suburbs. OK, I have to drive to work. But the many, many little car trips around town has got to go. Before I sell my house, I think I'll see what I can do in my town to make fewer trips.
• Choose more selective and authentic suburbs. That tract housing development never appealed to me, even less so now. I want to live in a suburban town, not a developer's cookie-cutter pseudo-community. I don't really need an affluent shopping mall, what I need is a good grocery store. Those lifestyle centers with pretentious names and gated communities disgust me. Make the town work; don't build me a dream community from farmland.
• Improve the transit. I am sick of standing in the train vestibules. I need more trains and better service. I'm going to ride my bike to the train station and demand better service.
• Who needs an SUV? I know I need a minivan, but it gets 23mpg, 27 sometimes on the highway. Perhaps the SUV is finally on the way out as they are reviled for their environmental impact and just too extravagant for more people to operate anymore.
• Work from home. Working from home one day per week would save 20% in fuel costs. Gas prices give workers an external argument to employers to make this accommodation. Failing that, workers will realize they need more money and push wage costs up as they change jobs to cover the travel cost. But it is a lot easier for everyone just to figure out effective remote work strategies.

Rising gas prices are a real change agent. But let's focus on what we can change and take advantage of the increased awareness to make incremental improvements. Migration is the last resort.